Shell has released their New Lens Scenario’s looking at different trends in economy, politics and energy up to the year 2100. They have made some assumptions and come up with two different directions the world could go in terms of energy and policy.

Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser says, “These scenario’s show how the choices made by governments, businesses and individuals in the next few years will have a major impact on the way the future unfolds.”

The two scenarios are called the Mountain Scenario and the Ocean Scenario. Although they are both very different, they do have some common assumptions. The reports predicts that the global population will be heading towards 9.5 billion by 2060 and estimates that the world energy demands will more than double within 50 years. Both also see carbon dioxide dropping near zero by 2100 and this is basically were the similarities stop.

Mountains Scenario

This scenario centres on natural gas as the “backbone of the world’s energy system.” It has moderate economic growth in which policy shapes the worlds energy. Global demand for oil will peak around 2035 after which time, cars and trucks powered by electricity and hydrogen will begin to dominate.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is widely used to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Nuclear power in global electricity generation increases by around 25% in the period to 2060.

Oceans Scenario

This shows almost the opposite. Policy and technology limit the development and growth of nuclear power and natural gas outside North America. Coal is widely used until the middle of the century with little CCS – this brings on higher prices and spurs efficiency. Therefore solar panels become the world’s primary source of energy by 2070. Wind expansion slows due to public opposition to large wind installations.

“Elevated demand for coal and oil, a lack of support for CCS and less natural gas development outside of North America contributes to about 25% higher total greenhouse gas emissions than in the mountains scenario.”

Shell have recently pulled the plug on most of its solar and wind investments and concentrating on natural gasses. Many feel that maybe this belief shows in the scenarios and explains why Shell have more confidence in the Mountains Scenario where natural gas booms.